India is expected to surpass China to become the world’s most populous country by around 2027, according to the latest report, “World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights”, released by the United Nations on 17 June 2019.
At present, India is the second most populous country, with around 1.36 billion people. It is projected that India will have around 1.47 billion people by 2027. After that, India’s population will continue to grow, reaching a peak of 1.65 billion people in the 2050s and then declining slowly to 1.5 billion by 2100.
On the other hand, China’s population is expected to increase from 1.43 billion to 1.464 billion in 2030. Thereafter, it will start to decrease and will be back at 1.4 billion in 2050. By 2100, It is projected to decrease to 1.1 billion people.
Given the difference in land areas between the two countries, it may not be wise to compare their total population alone. If we could examine their population density, the true gap between the two countries would be identified.
In India, population density has increased from 190 persons per square kilometer in 1970 to 460 persons per square kilometer at present and may further increase to 550 persons per square kilometer in 2050s.
On the other hand, China’s population density increased from 90 persons per square kilometer in 1970 to 153 persons per square kilometer at present and is projected to reach the peak of 156 persons per square kilometer in 2030.
Regarding the population density ratio between the countries, it increased from 2.1 in 1970 to 3.0 at present and is projected to increase to 4.3 by the end of the century. Even after adjusting for desert and plateau areas, which account for one-third of China’s total land area, the gap between the two countries is still significant.
Population density is an important factor for evaluating the impact of human activities on the environment and natural resources. Given the high level of population density and the amount of population growth in India, concerns about environmental consequences are unavoidably raised in the era of climate change caused by human activities.
During the past decade, China and India have been well-known for notorious harmful air pollution. However, air pollution in China has improved recently due to the economic downturn. In contrast, air pollution in India is worsening due to economic development driven by persistent population growth.
Another major concern is the water crisis in India, where 18% of the world’s population shares only 4% of usable water sources. According to an Indian government report, groundwater may soon run out in many areas or cities. Moreover, water pollution is common across India which is attributable to 21% of the country’s diseases.
Undoubtedly, population growth in India will put a great strain on environmental sustainability. Given the populous status and environmental pollution coupled with potential resource depletion, I can’t help saying that it is horrible for India to overtake China as the world’s most populous country. If the Indian government and communities can not make ambitious efforts to control population growth, overpopulation and its risk to public health will be one of the major social problems in India.
